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Firm dollar drags yen down closer to intervention range
  + stars: | 2024-04-23 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +4 min
A firm U.S. dollar had the yen locked near a fresh 34-year low on Tuesday, keeping investors on heightened intervention watch as they looked ahead to key U.S. inflation report and the Bank of Japan's rate decision this week. A firm U.S. dollar had the yen locked near a fresh 34-year low on Tuesday, keeping investors on heightened intervention watch as they looked ahead to key U.S. inflation report and the Bank of Japan's rate decision this week. Traders have been keeping wary eye as yen slips towards 155.00, a level considered by many participants as the new trigger for intervention by Japanese authorities. The weak yen complicates the BOJ's policy path, with some market players betting the central bank could come under pressure to hike rates sooner than it wants to slow the currency's decline. Markets are currently pricing in a 46% chance of the Fed's first rate cut starting in September, with November not far behind at 42%, according to the CME FedWatch Tool.
Persons: Carol Kong, Shunichi Suzuki, BoE, Sterling, bitcoin Organizations: Bank of, Traders, Bank of Japan's, Commonwealth Bank of Australia, Japan's Finance, Federal Reserve, Investors, Commonwealth Bank of Australia's, European Central Bank, Bank of England Locations: Japan, Iran, Israel, Tokyo, Japan's, U.S, Commonwealth Bank of Australia's Kong
Currencies calm but cautious after a weary week
  + stars: | 2024-04-22 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +3 min
U.S. one hundred dollar bills are being shown in this picture illustration taken in Buenos Aires, Argentina, on Dec. 15, 2023. Eyes are on the yen this week, with the Bank of Japan's, or BOJ, Friday policy review the notable item on the economic calendar. The yen has been one of the biggest losers against the dollar this year, with losses mounting to 9%. The ECB's Robert Holzmann, however, said the ECB probably will not cut rates this year as much as planned if the Fed does not move. BoE Governor Andrew Bailey and Deputy Governor Dave Ramsden alluded last week to Britain's inflation slowing as expected.
Persons: Chris Weston, Weston, Kazuo Ueda, BoE, ECB policymaker Madis Muller, Christine Lagarde, Robert Holzmann, BoE Governor Andrew Bailey, Dave Ramsden, Sterling, Bitcoin Organizations: U.S ., Bank of Japan's, Federal Reserve, Monetary Fund, Bank, Washington , Bank of Japan, European Central Bank, Bank of England, ECB policymaker, ECB, Treasury Locations: Buenos Aires, Argentina, East, Tehran, Iran, Washington, United States, Japan, South Korea, Washington ,, U.S
The Bank of England could still cut interest rates in May, Morgan Stanley has said, in an increasingly rare call of confidence as market sentiment supporting such a move wanes. "We still entertain a May rate cut," chief economist Jens Eisenschmidt told CNBC's "Street Signs" on Wednesday, reiterating the bank's commitment to an earlier call. The Wall Street bank's contrarian view is now some way off consensus, which currently prices in an initial BOE rate cut in September, according to LSEG data. "In general, the central banks are all, to some extent, in the same boat. Morgan Stanley on Monday revised its ECB rate cut forecast, following an earlier revision in its Fed outlook.
Persons: Morgan Stanley, Jens Eisenschmidt, CNBC's, BOE, Andrew Bailey, Morgan Stanley's, Eisenschmidt, there's Organizations: Bank of England, European Central Bank, ECB Locations: City of London, London, United Kingdom, Europe, U.S
Food prices provided the biggest downward drag on the headline rate, the ONS said, while motor fuels pushed it higher. The core figure, excluding energy, food, alcohol and tobacco, came in at 4.2%, compared with a projection of 4.1%. Services inflation, a key watcher for U.K. monetary policymakers, declined from 6.1% to 6% — again above the expectations of both economists and the BOE. This week, investors have been monitoring signs of a cooling U.K. labor market, with unemployment unexpectedly rising to 4.2% in the period between December and February. The central bank's own forecast is for inflation to "briefly drop" to its 2% target in the spring before increasing slightly.
Persons: BOE, BOE Governor Andrew Bailey Organizations: National Statistics, Bank of England, Reuters, Federal Reserve Locations: U.S
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailUK inflation data doesn't support rate cuts until end of the year, former BOE member saysEconomist DeAnne Julius, former member of the Bank of England, discusses the Bernanke review of the BOE's forecasting methods, and when the central bank will start to look at rate cuts.
Persons: BOE, DeAnne Julius Organizations: Bank of England
LONDON — The Bank of England on Friday announced a "once in a generation" overhaul of its inflation forecasting following a long-awaited review by former Federal Reserve Chair Ben Bernanke. The review — initiated following criticism of the central bank's recent policymaking — sets out 12 recommendations which BoE Governor Andrew Bailey said the bank was committed to implementing. They include the scrapping of the Bank's long-held "fan chart" forecasting system and the introduction of a revamped forecast framework. It added that the BoE currently relies more heavily than other central banks on a central forecast, which may not fully account for wider risks or how inflation expectations can become "de-anchored." Additionally, the review said the bank needed to improve its communication with the public, suggesting the it put less emphasis on the central forecast, simplify its policy statement, and reduce repetitiveness."
Persons: Ben Bernanke, , BoE, Andrew Bailey, Bailey Organizations: Bank of England, City of, Federal, CNBC, Monetary, Bank Locations: City, City of London, United Kingdom, U.S
The U.S. Federal Reserve is likely to cut interest rates before the European Central Bank does, a former member of the Bank of England said, defying current market expectations. Investors are closely monitoring central bank moves on the back of a considerable reduction in inflation across major economies. So far, Switzerland was the first major economy to cut interest rates back in late March. Market players are currently pricing in a 92.8% chance that the ECB will cut rates in June from the historically high level of 4%, according to LSEG data. Her comments come just ahead of a European Central Bank meeting due on Thursday.
Persons: DeAnne Julius, Julius, Christine Lagarde, Lagarde Organizations: U.S . Federal, European Central Bank, Bank of England, Monetary, CNBC, Tuesday, ECB, Federal Reserve Locations: Switzerland, U.S, United States
Former Federal Reserve Board Chair Ben Bernanke speaks during a discussion on "Perspectives on Monetary Policy" during the Thomas Laubach Research Conference at the Federal Reserve Board building in Washington, DC, May 19, 2023. LONDON — The Bank of England will on Friday publish a long-awaited review by former Federal Reserve Chair Ben Bernanke that could lead to significant changes in its monetary policymaking. The review was launched last summer to assess the Bank's struggles to accurately project the huge global spike in inflation, following Russia's invasion of Ukraine. The first deals with how the Bank of England communicates uncertainty around its central forecasts. The "fan chart" is the Bank's long-held method of presenting the probability distribution that forms the basis of its inflation forecasts.
Persons: Ben Bernanke, BOE, Goldman Sachs, Bernanke, Goldman, Jari Stehn, James Moberly, Stehn Organizations: Federal Reserve, Thomas Laubach Research, Federal Reserve Board, LONDON, Bank of, Federal, MPC, Bank of England, Bank Locations: Washington , DC, Bank of England, Ukraine
The dollar was on the front foot on Monday and kept the yen pinned near a multi-decade low, though the threat of currency intervention from Japanese authorities prevented the greenback from heading further north. "Japanese officials' verbal intervention is making 152 a very strong near-term resistance for dollar/yen," said Carol Kong, a currency strategist at Commonwealth Bank of Australia. "Markets are fully aware of a potential actual FX intervention from authorities, so I think that's keeping dollar/yen from moving substantially higher. "I think there is still a high risk that they will come in to prop up the yen if dollar/yen were to surge materially perhaps to 155. The yuan has been pressured by growing market expectations of further monetary easing to prop up the world's second-largest economy.
Persons: Carol Kong, That's, BoE, Andrew Bailey, Chris Weston Organizations: Bank of Japan's, Commonwealth Bank of Australia, Federal Reserve, European Central Bank, Bank of England, Swiss National Bank, Sterling, Financial Times, ECB, New Zealand Locations: Japan, United States
The Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank look poised to make "major progress" in cutting interest rates this year, according to the central bank of central banks. BIS serves as a bank and forum for national central banks, and as such has close understanding of their monetary policies. During its March meeting, the ECB held interest rates steady, but hinted at a June rate cut as it trimmed its annual inflation forecast. The Fed and the Bank of England are expected to shine future light on their plans for interest rates during their monetary policy meetings this week. The Bank of Japan is meanwhile predicted to lift interest rates on Tuesday, according to a Reuters poll, marking a major turn in its nearly two-decade-long cycle of negative interest rates.
Persons: Carstens, Annette Weisbach, disinflation, Philip Lane, JP Morgan, Goldman Sachs, BoE Organizations: Federal Reserve, European Central Bank, Bank for International, CNBC, BIS, ECB, Bank of England, Goldman, Bank of Japan
Dollar ends week under pressure as data keeps rate cut hopes alive
  + stars: | 2024-03-08 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +4 min
The unemployment rate rose to 3.9% in February after holding at 3.7% for three straight months, the data showed. The euro got a lift this week as the dollar came under pressure after Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell sounded more confident about cutting interest rates in coming months. Currencies typically weaken if central banks lower interest rates. Against the yen, the dollar was 0.68% lower at 147.05 yen, its weakest since Feb. 2. Firming hopes that interest rates in the U.S. and Europe will start to fall in June also helped prop up the risk-sensitive Australian and New Zealand dollars.
Persons: Jerome Powell, Stuart Cole, Cole, Powell, Lindsey Bell, Kathleen Brooks, Sterling, BoE, Firming, bitcoin Organizations: Federal Reserve, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Equiti, ECB, Federal, Ventures, Bank of, Reuters, European Central Bank, U.S . Federal, Bank of England, New Locations: Japan, Charlotte , North Carolina, Bank of Japan, U.S, Europe, New Zealand
Mike Kemp | In Pictures | Getty ImagesThe Bank of England is likely to hold interest rates higher for longer before slashing them more sharply than expected in the second half of the year, new forecasts from Goldman Sachs show. But it said the central bank was then likely to cut rates more quickly than previously anticipated as inflation shows signs of cooling. Goldman now sees five consecutive 25 basis point interest rate cuts this year, lowering rates from their current 5.25% to 4%. Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey said Tuesday that bets by investors on interest rate cuts this year were "not unreasonable," but resisted giving a timeline. Goldman said there was a 25% chance the BOE would delay rate cuts beyond June if wage growth and services inflation remained sticky.
Persons: Mike Kemp, Goldman Sachs, Goldman, BoE, Andrew Bailey, Bailey, Huw Pill, BOE Organizations: Bank of England, of England, Treasury, Bank Locations: City of London, London, United Kingdom
Dollar steady as sticky inflation dents rate cut expectations
  + stars: | 2024-02-19 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +3 min
United States one dollar bills are curled and inspected during production at the Bureau of Engraving and Printing in Washington. The dollar was steady on Monday after data last week showing U.S. inflation remained sticky cast doubts on when the Federal Reserve would start its easing cycle, while the yen remained rooted near the psychologically key 150 per dollar level. Chandler said there appears little on the charts to deter a test to last year's low of 152 per dollar level. Several Fed officials including Christopher Waller and Raphael Bostic are also due to speak this week. The Australian dollar rose 0.29% to $0.655, while the New Zealand dollar advanced 0.34% to $0.614.
Persons: Marc Chandler, Chandler, Christopher Waller, Raphael Bostic, Christopher Wong, BOE Organizations: Engraving, Federal Reserve, of Finance, Bannockburn Global, Data, Citi, Investor, Bank of England's, New Zealand Locations: United, Washington, Bannockburn, Bannockburn Global Forex
Dollar poised for weekly decline; US jobs data up next
  + stars: | 2024-02-02 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +4 min
The dollar index was last at 103.02 and on track for its first weekly decline for the year. The New Zealand dollar rose 0.07% to $0.6149 and was on track for a weekly rise of nearly 1%, its best performance in over a month. It was poised for a weekly gain of nearly 1.3%, its best week in over a month. That highlighted a growing view within the board that conditions were falling in place to soon pull short-term interest rates out of negative territory, which would be Japan's first interest rate hike since 2007. Data on Thursday showed euro zone inflation eased as expected last month but underlying price pressures fell less than forecast, likely boosting the European Central Bank's argument that rate cuts should not be rushed.
Persons: Jerome Powell, Ray Attrill, Raf Choudhury, BoE, Thierry Wizman Organizations: Federal Reserve, New Zealand, National Australia Bank, Friday's, Analysts, Bank of Japan's, Bank of England, Monetary, European Locations: Abrdn, U.S
LONDON — The Bank of England held interest rates steady at 5.25% on Thursday. The Monetary Policy Committee voted 6-3 in favor of holding rates. "The MPC remains prepared to adjust monetary policy as warranted by economic data to return inflation to the 2% target sustainably," the Bank said in statement. Much of the market focus of late has been on when the central bank will start cutting interest rates from their current 15-year high. However, it has remained on a general downward trajectory, while the Bank's key indicators of the labor market, wage growth and services inflation have all shown signs of easing.
Persons: BOE Organizations: Bank of England, City of, LONDON, Monetary, Bank Locations: City, City of London
LONDON — Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey on Thursday signaled that financial markets may be correct in their expectations for the future path of rate cuts. Speaking to CNBC, Bailey said he was "not going to commit" to a specific timeline for rate cuts, but added that he did not object to the market consensus. "I'm not going to give a view on how many cuts there'll be and when they will be. But I think that view that the market is taking is not one I object to," he told CNBC's Steve Sedgwick. Investors priced in four rate cuts by the end of this year after the central bank voted to hold interest rates steady at 5.25% earlier Thursday.
Persons: Andrew Bailey, BOE, Bailey, I'm, CNBC's Steve Sedgwick Organizations: Bank of England, City of, LONDON — Bank of England, CNBC, Monetary Locations: City, City of London
CNN —A painting by Denmark’s former monarch, Queen Margrethe II, is going up for auction. “You now have the opportunity to acquire a very special – and not least royal – work of art,” said the auction house, which has set an estimate of 75,000–100,000 Danish kroner ($11,000-$15,000). The painting dates from 1988, the year that Margrethe started to exhibit her art officially. Queen Margrethe at an exhibition of her work in January 2012 Keld Navntoft/Scanpix Denmark/AFP/Getty Images“The queen found her inspiration for the painting up for auction in the natural world, expressing it in a lyrical idiom. “We are very much looking forward to offering this work by H.M. Queen Margrethe II, which testifies to her immense passion for and prolificacy within art and creative work,” he added.
Persons: Denmark’s, Queen Margrethe II, Bruun Rasmussen, , , Margrethe, Hans Sølvhøj, Queen Margrethe, Keld, ” Niels Boe, H.M, Boe, Hauggaard, “ Queen Margrethe, Frederik, King Frederik X Organizations: CNN, Getty, Contemporary, CNN’s Royal Locations: Scanpix Denmark, AFP, Denmark, Copenhagen
HSBC has been fined 57.4 million pounds ($73 million) for "serious failings" in protecting some depositors over several years, in the first penalty of its kind under British rules designed to protect customers if banks fail. This is the second largest fine ever imposed by the PRA, topped only by an 87 million pound penalty on Credit Suisse in July 2023. "The serious failings in this case go to the heart of the PRA's safety and soundness objective," said Sam Woods, deputy governor of the Bank of England and CEO of the PRA. Globally systemically important banks -- such as HSBC and UBS -- are required to plan for resolution, which should allow regulators to unwind them without triggering broader systemic consequences. Britain's deposit protection rules require lenders to ensure critical information is held in order for the FSCS to compensate customers if a firm fails.
Persons: Sam Woods, BoE Organizations: HSBC, of England's Prudential, Authority, Britain's Financial, Credit Suisse, Bank of England, UBS
European stock markets are heading for a lower start to the week as investors prepare for a slew of earnings, data and central bank announcements. The regional Stoxx 600 climbed 3.1% last week, closing at its highest level since January 2022, according to LSEG data. Gains came amid some positive fourth-quarter company results, and as the market ramped up bets that the European Central Bank will begin cutting interest rates in April. It is a big week for earnings, with Big Tech's Microsoft, Apple, Meta, Amazon and Alphabet all set to report. In Asia-Pacific, markets traded mixed with all attention on Hong Kong's High Court ordering the liquidation of Chinese property developer Evergrande.
Organizations: European Central Bank, ECB, U.S . Federal, Bank of England, Big, Microsoft, Apple, Philips, Ryanair, Hong Locations: Europe, Asia, Pacific, Hong Kong's
Over his 54 years as a financial analyst, Richard X. Bove perfected the art of grabbing attention. Through thousands of newspaper interviews, cable news appearances and radio segments, Mr. Bove turned what can be a dull, by-the-numbers career into a more showy one. In an interview with The New York Times, Mr. Bove (pronounced “boe-VAY”), who goes by Dick, shared a dire outlook on the U.S. economy and his former profession. Many analysts are rewarded for coming up with unique but inconsequential and “arcane” ideas, he said, peppering his criticism with profanities. Mr. Bove worked at 17 brokerage firms during his career.
Persons: Richard X, Bove, , “ boe, VAY, Dick, Mr Organizations: Banker, Bloomberg, The New York Times Locations: U.S, Tampa, China
Data due out in February will show whether the U.K. has entered a technical recession — defined as when the economy shrinks for two consecutive quarters. There was also zero growth in the prior three months, the new figures showed, down from the 0.2% growth previously calculated. LONDON — The U.K. is edging closer to recession after revised figures showed the economy shrank in the previous quarter. Certainly, Rishi Sunak's pledge to grow the economy is now severely in doubt," he said. A near-term drop in interest rates would be a win for Sunak's government, as the U.K. enters an election year.
Persons: Jeremy Hunt, Richard Carter, Cheviot, Rishi Sunak's, Rishi Sunak, Downing, Andrew Bailey Organizations: Office, National Statistics, LONDON, Bank of England
A passageway near the Bank of England (BOE) in the City of London, U.K., on Thursday, March 18, 2021. The market is pricing an almost 100% chance of a hold on Thursday, according to LSEG, with economic data since the Bank's last meeting proving largely inconclusive. The latest labor market data on Tuesday indicated a continuation of recent trends, with unemployment remaining broadly flat and vacancies continuing to decline at pace. Average pay including bonuses fell by 1.6% between September and October, versus an average monthly growth rate of 1.1% in the first half of the year. "An unchanged forward guidance will also serve the MPC well to push against the current market pricing of Bank Rate which assigns an increasing probability to cuts in H1 2024," they said.
Persons: BOE, Hollie Adams, Jake Finney, Finney, Abbas Khan, Jack Organizations: Bank of England, City of, Bloomberg, Getty, Monetary, Federal Reserve, Reuters, Bank, Barclays, MPC Locations: City, City of London
Central bank blunders undermine tough rate talk
  + stars: | 2023-12-05 | by ( Francesco Guerrera | ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +8 min
Comments by central bankers underline their desire to keep interest rates high until price growth quiesces. Policymakers’ recent mistakes mean they will struggle to convince investors their tough talk is real. U.S. Federal Reserve Chair Jay Powell says his fellow policymakers are “not thinking about rate cuts at all”. In May, after another U.S. regional bank failure, markets concluded that the Fed’s rate hike at the beginning of that month would be its last. Respected central bankers might be able to convince markets that these numbers don’t portend imminent rate cuts.
Persons: Jay Powell, Christine Lagarde, Andrew Bailey, Powell, backtrack, , Lagarde, Treasuries, BoE, Bailey, Ben Bernanke, Jacob Frenkel, Peter Thal Larsen, Oliver Taslic, Thomas Shum Organizations: Reuters, Traders, U.S . Federal, European Central Bank, Bank of England, titans, Deutsche Bank, Treasury, Reuters Graphics Reuters, LSEG, Silicon Valley Bank, Fed, ECB, Bank of Israel, Federal Reserve, European, Thomson Locations: Silicon, Bailey, United States, Ukraine, Central
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via Email'We should not wait a decade to have transition plans,' former BOE governor says on climate changeMark Carney, U.N. special envoy for climate action and former Bank of England governor, tells CNBC's Dan Murphy about energy transition plans at COP28.
Persons: BOE, Mark Carney, U.N, CNBC's Dan Murphy Organizations: Bank of England Locations: COP28
People and businesses could use a digital pound to make payments, with the BoE suggesting a limit of up to 20,000 pounds for digital wallets provided by banks, far higher than the 3,000 euros discussed by the European Central Bank for a digital euro. The committee's "The digital pound: still a solution in search of a problem?" The prospect of a digital pound, now in the design phase, has raised concerns that it would allow the authorities to spy on what people spend on, and that it could spell the end of cash. "We recommend that any primary legislation used to introduce a digital pound does not allow the Government or Bank of England to use the data from a digital pound for any purposes beyond those already permitted for law enforcement," the report said. The BoE has said interest should not be payable on digital pound deposits, but the committee said this position should be reviewed.
Persons: Susannah Ireland, BoE, Harriett Baldwin, Huw Jones, Alison Williams Organizations: of, Bank of England, REUTERS, Treasury, European Central Bank, Government, Thomson Locations: of England, London, Britain
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